Earlier this month, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, the incumbent(現任) failed to take the lead in the first round of a French presidential election. Now, before the second round, scheduled for Sunday, surveys indicate that President Nicolas Sarkozy will be beaten handily(輕而易舉地) by François Hollande, the Socialist Party candidate. So handily, in fact, that the French press has already moved on to speculating(猜測) about the legislative elections that will take place in June.
本月稍早,法國第五共和史上第一次現任總統候選人在第一輪總統選舉中失去第一的寶座。如今,在預定禮拜天的第二輪投票過後,民調顯示現任總統Nicolas Sarkozy將會被法國社會黨候選人François Hollande輕易地擊敗。如此輕而易舉地-事實上,法國媒體已經著手預測預定六月舉行的國會議員選舉。
Chances are that the outcome in June will be determined by the same issues that dominated the first round of voting in the presidential election, which have dominated the second round as well. So it is telling that the far-right National Front, headed by Marine Le Pen, doubled its vote share in the first round compared with 2007. And much of the increase came from voters who had picked Sarkozy last time, according to estimates from exit polls. That arithmetic helped Hollande, a lower-profile(低姿態) figure who was a member of the group of Socialists nurtured by François Mitterrand during his long presidency, nose ahead in the race.
六月國會議員選舉結果極可能被影響第一、二輪總統大選相同的議題所左右。意指,由Marine Le Pen帶領的極右派「民族陣線」,在第一輪總統大選中得票比2007多出雙倍,且這些多出來的票源來自2007年支持薩柯奇的選民。(參考根據來自「選票口民調」的預測法。)這也幫助了奧朗德--一個由密特朗長久的任期中培育出的社會派溫和人物--在選舉中大幅領先。
The National Front surge has effectively set the political agenda for the coming months, and the party will influence the priorities of whatever government comes next. Indeed, French populism is in vogue(流行) once again. Each of the four major candidates has run a nationalist campaign, although of slightly different varieties.
民族陣線的來勢洶洶已經有效影響未來幾個月的政治議程。這政黨機會影響未來上台政府的優先次序。的確,法國民粹主義又再度興起。四個總統候選人競選內容均參雜了民族主義的要素,只有些微不同而已。
After the first round of voting, barely a quarter of voters surveyed cited "the issues" as the reason they made their choice.
經過第一次選舉後,經調查,幾乎四分之一以上的選民表示他們做出選擇的關鍵在於「(民族)議題」。
On the right, Nicolas Sarkozy has focused on immigration -- in particular, undocumented immigration, the vulnerability of French borders, and France's Muslim population. He has committed to "preserve our way of life," emphasizing the dangers of immigration. Le Pen has done the same, but with a greater emphasis on Euro-skepticism, more criticism of the euro, and a defense of the French welfare state.